Methodology
How Elevenrate estimates player value
The Elevenrate value is a modelled estimate designed to make player profiles easier to compare over time. It starts from a market baseline combining real transfer price discovery with the latest reliable dated market reference. Elevenrate then applies bounded adjustments from football evidence and softly normalizes only material excess divergence from the latest market range.
What the estimate considers
- Dated market baseline
- The latest reliable dated market value and the player's last paid permanent transfer establish the starting range. Fresh evidence carries more weight, and a 15% neutral range protects the model's independent signal before excess divergence is compressed.
- Position-specific age curve
- Age and position adjust the resale cycle. Proven young starters can receive limited upside, while older players have progressively less room for growth.
- Contract situation
- The model considers the verified remaining contract length when reliable contract data is available.
- Availability and injury risk
- Current availability and recent absence context can reduce the estimate when the evidence indicates additional risk.
- Club context
- The sporting level of the current club provides a bounded correction; it cannot create a high valuation without supporting market evidence.
- Playing time and recent performance
- Dated appearances, lineups, minutes, match events and recent ratings provide a bounded form correction rather than a standalone price.
- Real transfer price discovery
- The latest paid permanent transfer is blended into the baseline and fades gradually with time. A lower fee than the previous paid transfer also limits upside.
How the trend is determined
Elevenrate saves one valuation snapshot per day and compares the current estimate with the previous available daily snapshot. Changes below 0.5% are shown as stable to avoid presenting rounding or minor data noise as real movement.
What the value is not
The Elevenrate value is not an official market price, asking price or transfer offer. It depends on the quality and freshness of available data and may change when a source is updated, corrected or expanded.
Review all current estimates and the freshness of their market data.
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